'At Least 20 More Years': Pollster Pradeep Gupta's Big Call On BJP's Continuing Dominance In India

'At Least 20 More Years': Pollster Pradeep Gupta's Big Call On BJP's Continuing Dominance In India Published By, Last Updated: May 21, 2026, 14:45 IST Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta has opined that the BJP’s political dominance in India could continue for “at least 20 years” if its governance performance remains strong. A photo of the BJP's flag (Social Media) The Bharatiya Janata Party’s current phase of political dominance in India could continue for “at least 20 years", Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta has said, arguing that the ruling party’s electoral strength remains closely tied to governance performance and public expectations. In an interview with news agency PTI, Gupta drew parallels between the BJP’s current political position and the decades-long dominance once enjoyed by the Congress after Independence. According to him, Indian politics tends to move in long cycles of political supremacy, and the BJP is presently in the middle of such a phase. “There is a threshold in politics. Earlier, Congress ruled continuously till 1977. After that, it started facing difficulties. In those days, we used to talk about a political generation lasting around 20 years. That 20-year cycle will remain even now," Gupta told PTI. The pollster suggested that as long as the BJP continues to deliver strong governance and avoids a decline in performance, it is likely to remain the central force in Indian politics for years to come. “Till the time their performance does not become weak or poor, they will keep winning, and the opposition will keep losing," he said. BJP FACES RISING EXPECTATIONS While projecting confidence in the BJP-led NDA’s political future, Gupta also cautioned that electoral dominance naturally brings heightened public scrutiny and expectations. “After receiving such a massive mandate, expectations from the BJP have also increased. So the BJP and the NDA will now have to superperform," he said. He further remarked that every dominant political force eventually faces pressure from the weight of expectations. “When you reach great heights, there is also a tendency to come down later. BJP has also reached that stage where expectations from it have risen," Gupta added. CONGRESS STILL FACING ‘LEGACY ISSUES’ Gupta also spoke about the Congress party’s continuing political struggles, saying the opposition party remains burdened by what he described as perceptions of past misgovernance. According to him, rebuilding public trust could take several more years. “Even if you talk about 2029, it would mean around 15 years (out of power for Congress). I feel it may take at least five more years for them to convince the entire country," he was quoted as saying. Gupta suggested that the political fortunes of both the BJP and the opposition would ultimately depend on governance and voter perception rather than short-term political narratives. BJP IN STRONG POSITION IN UTTAR PRADESH Discussing the political mood ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, Gupta said feedback gathered by Axis My India suggested that the BJP remained in a “comfortable position" in the state under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. “If we consider the feedback in totality from Uttar Pradesh, then one can say that the satisfaction percentage is good. Keeping that in mind, as things stand today, one does not see much trouble (for the BJP) in Uttar Pradesh," he said. At the same time, Gupta warned that Uttar Pradesh remained politically volatile and capable of witnessing rapid shifts in voter mood. “But Uttar Pradesh is a different kind of state where the situation changes very quickly," he added. PUNJAB A ‘VERY INTERESTING’ CONTEST On Punjab politics, Gupta described the situation as more fluid and competitive, particularly because of the emergence of a four-cornered contest involving the AAP, Congress, BJP-led NDA and the Akali Dal. “In Punjab, the situation is mixed. Some sections of society are satisfied, but now four parties are visible in the contest," he said. Gupta argued that fragmented electoral contests can significantly alter outcomes, saying even relatively small vote shares can deliver major victories if opposition votes split. “When four parties are in the fray, even 26 per cent vote share can bring a full majority," he said, citing past examples from Uttar Pradesh politics. ‘GOOD GOVERNANCE’ DRIVES BJP’S RISE Gupta also rejected the argument that the BJP’s electoral success was primarily driven by religious polarisation or Hindu vote consolidation. Speaking about the party’s rise in states like West Bengal, he credited governance, leadership and organisational strength instead. “Hindu and Muslim issues do not determine victory or losses. When you attribute BJP’s win to Hindu vote consolidation, you undermine the good development and the good work done in those states," he said. The pollster said Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma, Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s organisational skills and the RSS network played k