Friday briefing: As Israel’s coalition collapses, can its prime minister hang on to power?

Good morning. On Wednesday, Israeli legislators took the first steps towards dissolving parliament and calling fresh nationwide elections. Leading leftwing Knesset member Yair Golan hailed it “the beginning of the end of the worst government in Israel’s history.” Benjamin Netanyahu has spent 20 of the last 30 years as Israel’s prime minister, the last four of which have seen him helm a far-right coalition. Under the incumbent government, settlement building in the illegally occupied West Bank has accelerated, while many international humanitarian NGOs have been banned from the Palestinian territories. Following Hamas’s killing of 1,200 Israelis on 7 October 2023, Netanyahu has orchestrated a campaign of violence in Gaza, killing or injuring more than 10% of the population, and flattening the strip in what a UN commission has declared a genocide. Netanyahu remains on trial for three counts of corruption. Much has changed since Israeli voters last went to the polls. Public support for Israel in both western Europe and the US is at its lowest ever level. Israeli public opinion, meanwhile, has shifted further right. For today’s First Edition, I spoke to Dahlia Scheindlin, a Tel Aviv-based political consultant and pollster, who has worked on nine Israeli election campaigns, about what is at stake and whether this vote may spell the end for Netanyahu. First, the headlines Five big stories UK news | The parents of a girl critically injured in the Southport attack were allowed no more than 12 counselling sessions after the atrocity, while others described a “woeful” lack of support. UK politics | Sadiq Khan has blocked a £50m Metropolitan police deal with the controversial US tech company Palantir, sparking a bitter row between the London mayor and Scotland Yard. Israel | Israel has said it has deported all the foreign activists it seized from a Gaza-bound flotilla, after a global outcry over their treatment in custody. UK news | Single-sex toilets and changing rooms in England, Wales and Scotland must exclude transgender men and women, according to a new code of practice from the equalities watchdog. Ukraine | Ukrainian drones hit the Syzran oil refinery more than 800km inside Russia, setting it on fire, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday. In depth: A thorny, unsolved question cracks the coalition View image in fullscreen Naftali Bennett (left) and Yair Lapid have launched a new party to challenge Likud in the Knesset. Photograph: Gideon Markowitz/Reuters In power since 2022, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud is the largest parliamentary party. That said, Scheindlin explains, no one expected his coalition government to last this long. “He is backed by two ultra-nationalist religious fundamentalist parties, and two ultra-orthodox religious fundamentalist parties.” Collectively, they hold 64 seats. For years, Scheindlin continues, Netanyahu’s coalition government has been plagued by the same thorny question. “Can it pass a law to guarantee the continued exemption of most ultra-orthodox young men from military service?” This has long been divisive in Israeli society, and yet, the coalition has trudged along, without resolving it. To Netanyahu’s coalition partners, this exemption law is of paramount importance. “It has seen many governments collapse. This government repeatedly reached crisis point over it,” says Scheindlin. On Wednesday, their coalition finally cracked. “Netanyahu’s partners said we don’t trust this government to pass that legislation any more.” A vote to dissolve parliament received the backing of 110 out of 120 lawmakers. A three-month pre-election run-up period is required by law. Late August is the earliest possible polling day, with a cut-off date of 27 October. No guaranteed victory Netanyahu remains the most popular potential PM – having topped the polls consistently since August 2024 – but that’s no guarantee of electoral victory. “He is coming in strongest in almost all surveys,” says Scheindlin, “although with slight variations lately.” Made up of 120 seats, the Knesset is elected every four years through nationwide proportional representation. “Usually 30 to 40 parties compete,” Scheindlin says, “cross the 3.25% vote share threshold and you enter parliament.” No party in Israel’s history has won a majority of 61+ seats – so Netanyahu, like all those before him, relies on fragile coalitions. “In all polling from the last two years,” says Scheindlin, “his coalition has been getting between 49 and 56 seats.” If public opinion remains as is, Netanyahu will fail to secure another majority. Scheindlin also points out the remaining opposition parties which outnumber Netanyahu’s bloc aren’t necessarily more progressive. “Polling between 64 and 71 seats, these are dominated by what Israelis perceive to be moderate right, secular right, or semi-religious anti-Netanyahu parties.” While Likud has remained steady at the top of opinion polls, the second-ranked party has shifted regularly. “It i

Friday briefing: ​As Israel’s coalition collapses, can its prime minister hang on to power?

Friday briefing: As Israel’s coalition collapses, can its prime minister hang on to power?