Colombia’s climate crossroads: Trumpism casts shadow over presidential battle

Several hours after dark in a quiet Caribbean neighbourhood, a cluster of environmental activists gather on plastic chairs between a mango tree and a courtyard wall emblazoned with the words: “Colombia, respira!” (breathe Colombia). So many people have turned up that some are forced to stand. That is because tonight’s speaker, Susana Muhamad, is one of the most admired socio-environmental campaigners in the world and this is a moment of profound historical significance. This month’s presidential election will decide whether Colombia remains a global leader on the climate and exemplar of “popular environmentalism”, or whether it switches to the side of fracking, mining and other forms of fossil-fuelled extractivism. In other words, whether it will change from green to grey. The movement is braced for a struggle. President Gustavo Petro of Pacto Historico is constitutionally barred from serving a consecutive second term so the party has selected Iván Cepeda to run for president and continue his policies. The far-right candidate, Abelardo De La Espriella, and centre-right candidate, Paloma Valencia, are both enthusiastic about reopening the oil spigot and fracking. US interference is a big concern with the US president, Donald Trump, talking of military intervention in Colombia. View image in fullscreen President Gustavo Petro of Pacto Historico cannot serve a consecutive second term so the party has selected Iván Cepeda to run for president. Photograph: Carlos Ortega/EPA Muhamad, a former environment minister, tells the attendees: “We must win in the first round because the future of Colombia will be decided here, in this very complicated international context. If we don’t win, our country will be another in Latin America aligned with Donald Trump. We have to win. Otherwise, everything we’re talking about will be completely suspended for four years. Goodbye.” Muhamad speaks of the progress Colombia has made in declaring its part of the Amazon rainforest a fossil fuel-free zone, how president Petro has tried to curtail mining, protect people from pollution, and realise the country’s potential as a “great power for life”. She contrasts this to what is happening in Bolivia, where the pro-business government has sold off tracts of the Junín River basin to a lithium mining company, and to Ecuador, where the far-right president, Daniel Noboa, is trying to weaken indigenous land defenders and open up protected lands for mineral exploitation and to allow a US military base on the Galápagos Islands. View image in fullscreen Francia Márquez, the vice-president of Colombia, won the Goldman Environmental prize for her campaign to halt illegal gold mining in her ancestral community of La Toma. Photograph: Fernanda Pineda/The Guardian Colombia plays an outsized role in the push for climate justice. In recent years, Muhamad has become a familiar face on the international stage, notably as a leading advocate for the transition away from fossil fuels at the Cop29 climate conference in Dubai, then as president of the biodiversity Cop16 in Cali, Colombia. Muhamad is by no means a lone voice for the environment in the Pacto Historico government. Francia Márquez, the vice-president of Colombia, won the Goldman Environmental prize for her campaign to halt illegal gold mining in her ancestral community of La Toma. The environment minister, Irene Vélez Torres, has just co-chaired the world’s first conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, an alliance of countries that want to accelerate the energy transition rather than be held back by the consensus-based UN system and the vetoes of big oil producers. President Petro also demonstrated his commitment at that conference in Santa Marta with a call for Colombia to set an example of how to mobilise the population to overcome the “suicidal” economics and “fascistic” politics of the fossil fuel industry. View image in fullscreen Irene Velez Torres, Colombia’s minister of environment and sustainable development, champions transitioning away from fossil fuels. Photograph: Mauricio Dueñas Castañeda/EPA The leadership demonstrated by Petro’s government has moved the phaseout of oil, gas and coal from the margins into the centre of global diplomacy, according to Tzeporah Berman, the founder and chair of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative. As a result, she said, this month’s presidential ballot will make international waves. “The implications of this election reach far beyond Colombia. At a moment of escalating climate disasters and geopolitical instability, the world is watching whether this leadership continues, or whether political pressure from the fossil fuel industry succeeds in pushing countries backward.” US interference is a big concern, with Trump warning of military intervention in Colombia. Environmentalists in Colombia believe the national commitment draws its force from grassroots activists. Colombia is one of the world’s deadliest countries for environmental defenders and