China's zero-tariff for Africa: Win-win or winner takes all?

China has opened its market to 53 African countries, calling it a "golden key" to prosperity. But while new opportunities emerge, analysts warn that the reality for African economies is more complex. The first shipments of avocados from Kenya arrived in China under Beijing's new zero-tariff rule early this month — a clear sign, analysts say, that the agreement is starting to have real effects. The policy, which came into effect on May 1, gives Africa's biggest economies tariff-free access to China's market for the next two years. "China introducing the zero tariff is very, very encouraging," Olive Gichuri, a Kenyan coffee farmer, told DW. "It means better earnings for the farmers. When our coffee becomes very competitive, it means more demand and also more market for farmers." "They [farmers] are not only limited to selling their products in the local [Kenyan] market," Gichuri said, adding that the zero tariff had opened the market in China. How China's trade relationship with African countries has grown Lauren Johnston, a senior research fellow and international economist specializing in China, Africa and geoeconomics at the AustChina Institute in Melbourne, told DW that the policy "is actually a gift mainly to Africa's stronger economies that are middle-income countries and that are sort of well-positioned to elevate exports." In 2025, China and Africa traded a record $348 billion (€312 billion) in goods, according to China's General Administration of Customs. China has been Africa's biggest trading partner for 16 consecutive years. African countries sent about $123 billion worth of goods to China, mostly oil, minerals, and other raw materials. In return, they bought around $225 billion worth of products from China, mainly manufactured goods, electronics, vehicles, and machinery. Africa's trade deficit with China grew sharply, hitting a record $102 billion in 2025, up from roughly $62 billion the previous year, according to official Chinese data. "The export price is low because we do not add value to our exports," Adu Owusu Sarkodie, an economist and senior lecturer at the University of Ghana, told DW. "The best way to position ourselves is to get a value addition to our exports, so that we can earn a higher price, higher income, and then reduce poverty." Much of this increase in the deficit stems from China's push to diversify its supply chains amid its trade dispute with the United States. Africa's growing demand for green technologies such as electric vehicles, motorbikes, and solar panels has also led to increased imports from China. Kenya, South Africa and Ghana are some of the zero-tariff 'winners' Kenya is among the clearest early beneficiaries. China granted about 98.2% zero‑duty market access to Kenyan products under the Early Harvest Agreement. "If you consider the population of Chinese people and their consumption, this means we will be able to do more business in coffee in China. And again, people will benefit more in the coffee industry," Frederik Gathuma, a Kenyan farmer, told DW. In 2024, Kenya imported $4.31 billion worth of goods from China, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database, but its exports to Beijing are much smaller and focus on tea, coffee, cut flowers and fresh produce. The gap is large, but Kenya's strong agricultural standards, cold-chain logistics, and export relationships could help it grow exports faster than many other African countries. South Africa is one of the continent's most export-ready economies. South African rooibos tea now has tariff-free access, and the mining sector, including gold, platinum, and chrome, could benefit from lower entry costs into Chinese supply chains. Kenya turns to China as Iran war slams flower exports To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Ghana reached a record $14.1 billion in trade with China in 2025. The opportunity is real, but there are also risks. Many economists are urging the government in Accra to avoid focusing only on exporting raw cocoa beans and to invest in processing so it can export cocoa butter and finished chocolate. Zero tariffs on processed goods benefit Ghanaian workers, while zero tariffs on raw beans primarily benefit Chinese factories. Landlocked countries face logistical hurdles Mali and Niger show the limits of the deal for landlocked, resource-dependent countries. Both Sahel nations face high logistics costs that offset any tariff savings. Their goods must travel hundreds of kilometers to reach a port, which adds cost and time. Also, neither country has large export industries capable of meeting China's requirements for volume, certification and packaging. "We are training exporters to be able to comply with the China Customs standards," Erick Rutto, president of the Kenya Chamber of Commerce, told DW. "On the issue of phytosanitary standards, we are also training them and also providing them with market access and the correct pri