Why Iran is sending mixed signals on talks
Trump says talks with Iran are underway. Tehran says it is discussing the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, not Washington. Analysts say the gap reflects
Trump says talks with Iran are underway. Tehran says it is discussing the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, not Washington. Analysts say the gap reflects competing political pressures. US President Donald Trump on Monday said that negotiations with Iran were ongoing over the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the Islamic Republic was facing a "last chance before decapitation." Trump told reporters at the White House that he agreed to continue to pursue talks with Iran at the request of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other countries. His remarks appeared to contradict public statements from Tehran, which has so far denied that negotiations with Washington were taking place. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei nevertheless confirmed that Tehran was holding talks with Oman over the strategic waterway. The two sides may therefore be describing the same diplomatic channel in different terms, each using language aimed at its own domestic audience. Washington describes the Omani mediation as negotiations with Iran. Tehran portrays it as a technical discussion with Oman about shipping through the strait. Hormuz remains the main obstacle The Strait of Hormuz has become the main sticking point. Commercial traffic through key waterway remains severely restricted, while ships continue to face attacks near the strait. According to data from maritime analytics company Kpler cited by Reuters news agency, only six commercial vessels crossed the route on Monday, down from seven the previous day. The uncertainty surrounding the key waterway has also affected global markets. Hopes of diplomatic progress recently pushed oil prices lower and helped stock markets rise.
But those movements reflected how sensitive markets remain to any news about the strait, rather than evidence that the crisis had been resolved. Iran wants some measure of control over vessels entering the Persian Gulf to be recognized. The United States wants the strait fully reopened to unrestricted international shipping. Babak Dorbeiki, a London-based political analyst and former official at Iran's Strategic Research Center, told DW that the disagreement is no longer simply about whether the two sides are talking. "The question is what to call those talks and what each side hopes to gain from them," he said. Trump describes the indirect channel as negotiations because he needs to show that military and economic pressure has brought Tehran back to the table, Dorbeiki said. He suggested that Iran avoids the same terminology because acknowledging negotiations with Washington could be seen by its domestic opponents as surrender. The two sides remain far apart. "Iran wants control over vessels entering the strait, while the United States wants completely free passage," Dorbeiki said. "These positions cannot easily be reconciled." Divisions inside Iran The contradictory messages also reflect divisions between rival political factions inside Iran. Dorbeiki identifies two broad camps. "The first, which could be described as the 'development and reconstruction through agreement' camp, believes that without sanctions relief and the reopening of Hormuz, Iran's economy cannot recover or even sustain itself," he told DW. According to Dorbeiki, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and some Revolutionary Guard figures with economic interests may be closer to that view. The opposing camp, which includes the Paydari Front, a small, ultra-conservative party, "sees an agreement with the United States as an ideological defeat" and favors continued resistance.
The BriefWire