Can Trump Keep Control Of Congress? Why US Midterms Could Reshape His Second Term

Published 3 June 2026 · politics

Can Trump Keep Control Of Congress? Why US Midterms Could Reshape His Second Term Published By, Last Updated: June 03, 2026, 08:25 IST Trump’s grip

Can Trump Keep Control Of Congress? Why US Midterms Could Reshape His Second Term Published By, Last Updated: June 03, 2026, 08:25 IST Trump’s grip over Republican primaries remains strong, but weak approval ratings, the Iran war and economic stress could make November far harder for the GOP. Rapid Read US President Donald Trump. (Reuters Image) The US midterm elections are not a presidential race, but they could decide how much power Donald Trump actually has for the rest of his second term. In November, all seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot. The result will determine whether Republicans, often referred to as the GOP, continue to control Congress or Democrats gain enough power to check Trump’s agenda in Washington. The fight is crucial because midterms usually become a referendum on the sitting president. For Trump, that referendum comes at a difficult moment. His approval ratings are weak, the Iran war remains unpopular, inflation is rising, petrol prices are hurting voters, and economic anxiety is spreading across key voter groups. Trump still dominates Republican primaries, where his endorsement can make or break candidates. But the November election will require a much broader voter base than the MAGA supporters who turn out in party contests. That is where the Republican challenge begins. Why Are The Midterms A Test For Trump? Presidential elections are about choosing who should lead the country. Midterms are different. They are held halfway through a president’s term and often allow voters to punish or reward the president’s party. Trump enters this cycle with serious vulnerabilities. His net approval is negative in 44 of the 50 US states, and his national approval rating is well below 40 per cent. Polling has also shown that most voters disapprove of his handling of the economy, inflation, jobs, healthcare, immigration and foreign policy. The Iran war has added to the burden. Trump’s decision to launch military action against Iran in late February recorded the lowest approval of any war in American history and remains among the most unpopular wars.

With no end to the conflict in sight, rising petrol prices and economic stress have become central concerns for voters. Trump has broadly retained Republican support, but his approval has slipped among independent and Latino voters, two groups that were important to his 2024 victory. That weakness could prove costly in competitive House and Senate races. Why Trump’s Primary Wins May Not Translate Into November Success Trump’s biggest strength is still his grip over the Republican base. But Republican primaries and general elections are not the same. In primaries, Trump’s loyal voters can dominate. In November, Republicans will need independents, moderates and voters who may care less about Trump’s internal party battles and more about the economy. Douglas Heye, a former communications director for the Republican Committee, told The New York Times: “The challenge of the administration right now is the issues that they bring up, that Trump brings up, are not where voters are. They don’t need a ballroom, they don’t need a weaponization fund, they need lettuce to be affordable." The problem for Republicans is that an endorsement that works in a primary may not be enough in a general election, especially if the national mood turns against the president’s party. Why Democrats Have A Clearer Path In The House The House of Representatives is the easier target for Democrats. They need a net gain of just three seats to take control. History also favours them. In the six midterm elections held this century, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House and three seats in the Senate. But the House fight is not simple. The number of truly competitive seats in the US has narrowed because of polarisation and gerrymandering. To protect their narrow majority, Trump and Republicans have pushed efforts to redraw congressional districts in several Republican-controlled states to increase the number of winnable seats. Democrats have responded by redrawing maps in California to favour their party. Why The Senate Is A Tougher Climb The Senate map is more difficult. Democrats need four seats to take control of the Senate, but many of the seats up for election are in states that voted for Trump.